Build A String Instrument For Physics

When will oil (Spark 2002)

from Vadim Viktorov

been nearly 9 years since the publication of the article, and the words of a sad clown of Russian economic fiction proved prophetic. A sad clown was the Russian government and its hangers-on in government and media.

November 16, 2010 IEA acknowledged that the world has reached peak oil production in the 2006m, more than was produced in 2006 the world will never be able to get!

Today president of the largest oil company, Shell acknowledged , that global oil demand to meet the impossible - all it will not suffice.

today were first confirmation that Russia began a collapse in oil production, as well as the fact that the ruling elite of falsifying data on oil production. The actual process destruction of the country has entered its active phase and the captains of a sinking ship "Russia" reassure passengers that everything is in order, and themselves occupy space in the lifeboats (First Luzhkov, and now Putin).

What to say - look at the prices in the shops - they grow up, grow and grow until the food disappears from stores.

In conclusion, let me post a photo of a bull and a barrel of oil needed for its cultivation. Comments as they say are unnecessary. Oil over, soon there will be no bulls ....

sad clown of Russian economic fiction Andrew Scab wrote another book prophecies. This time, it is no longer about the death of Russia, and the loss of the entire planetary civilization. The writer is growing ...

About din more than well-known economist had called Parshev villain for his hopeless attitude, another said that he does not comment on nonsense. However, likes it or not, but it became a public Parshev phenomenon. His first book, "Why Russia is not America without a penny of advertising has taken the first lines of the book charts, without being either entertaining, nor useful. Apparently, the wider society, which re-identifies itself as a nation, we need now are the books - a fictionalized story of a la Bushkov, economy a la Scab warfare a la Kalashnikov (not that), Science a la Muldashev.
confess Parshev new book "Why America is coming" came out much weaker than the first. But not because this time the author develops a theme, raised another third of a century ago the Club of Rome - the exhaustion of the medium. The reason for this other ... Manuscript is not known burn, but the hard drives die. A couple of months before putting the text to the printer in Parshev dead hard drive: a file is almost finished a book and all the links died, and author had to hastily re-write the book almost from memory. The feat will be remembered by the author ungrateful offspring ...
Yet theme exhaustion environment is so important that we have decided not to talk to Parshev, and make even a special section. We invite you to interview all interested persons and all concerned authorities. The heading "Resources" - a conversation about the future of civilization. In the next issue we will tell about the environmental crises and disasters that have already experienced the Earth, and try to "search oil" - to find out how much it still remains in the depths of our suffering planet.
- Andrei Petrovitch, that will soon run out of minerals, diamonds, long time. Now you decide?
- There was a French writer Andre Gide. So So he said that in this world all have been mentioned, but since no one remembers, we have to repeat again and again ... Can you actually imagine what would happen when run out of oil?
- imagine. We - the oil civilization. When will oil start hunger, cannibalism. I'll kill a fat neighbor and will vytaplivat of her oil for lighting. And it's not a joke. I have a gun.
- trouble is, it's really not a joke. Agriculture without tractors and combines will reduce the performance dozens of times ... And even if not reduced? What is driving up provisions in the city? Horses are no longer: the iron horse had replaced peasant horse.
- I think for to replace all the trains and trucks that require so many horses that they will eat anything that is grown in agriculture.
- The fact that the use of each new energy source - coal, oil - every time dramatically increased the number of mankind. For example, since the beginning of the twentieth century, when they began to use mass oil, the number of people on Earth has increased by six times. You were right, we - the oil civilization.
- I agree with you, if you suddenly run out of oil, it is does not mean that humanity once again uzhmetsya to "coal" billion. It will collapse much lower, because the infrastructure of the last century is no more - no less horses, locomotives, and most importantly - a majority of the population lives longer in the village, and in cities and is not engaged in growing food without a tractor ... So I and anxious. So how much oil we have left? ..

eating and drinking - Funny, is estimated - tears

- you know, the topic of oil in world politics - is like the topic sex in polite company. About it out loud is not saying. But all the time thinking ... In the year that humanity produces and uses 3 billion tons of oil. Of these, 1 billion consumes America - a third of the world's oil! That is one American kills 15 times more oil than the average earthling. Of course, America needs more oil others, respectively, more than others and bustle.
In the U.S., for example, its oil for 3 - 4 years. 8 billion tons of oil is in Venezuela, 6 billion tons - in Mexico. Also the main stocks located in the Gulf countries - more than 70 billion tons.
Throughout its history mankind has already spent $ 100 billion tons of oil. In the land remaining 140 billion tons. This Proved reserves, proven. There is also probable reserves and their estimated 60 - 70 billion tons. Russia currently produces just over 400 million tons a year.
- A total us how much?
- A incomprehensible. There are no exact figures. These are very different. Very big optimists say that the explored oil will last us for 50 years. Pessimists believe that in 2005 we will be unable to extract the oil. Not because she was no longer remain in the bowels, and not because of its price falls below cost, no - oil the world will only get more expensive for another reason: the amount of energy will need to spend to get kilograms of oil, equal the number of energy, which is contained in this very kilogram of oil! This is called the energy efficiency of extraction. After World War II it was 1:50, that is, spending a kilo of oil, we extracted 50 kilograms. In mid-1980 energy efficiency has dropped to 1:8, and including delivery to the consumer - 1:5. And then some by 2005 should drop to 1:1. Everything. Next extract the oil does not make sense. All the "easy" oil, we have long taken. For gas critical date is years 10 - 15 later than for oil ...
Generally, the data on Russian oil reserves range from 6 to 20 billion tons. Divide the annual production, and you get pessimistic and optimistic Forecasts - 15 and 50 years respectively.
- What if a field is open, that just ah? ..
- And suddenly will not open? .. There are no miracles. The peak of discoveries took place about in the middle of last century. Then open more fields than has been developed. And now the world's volume of newly discovered fields are no longer covered flow. Annual growth stocks is 0.8% of the world, and the annual cost - 2% of world reserves. That is, the world average, considering the balance of "coming-flow, enough oil to 2070. Then all. Alles kaput. And in Russia, oil is over even sooner.
- Do not take the extreme - in 2005, but still 15 and 50 years - big difference! After 15 years I would be just over fifty dollars. But 50 years later I have oil in the hell do not need. Let there son understands, I'll leave him a legacy of ammo and rifle grease. Still, is it possible to more precisely? Announce the entire list, please.
- You can try to estimate accurately. In the days of the State Planning Commission had a rule: have a minimum demand provision proven oil reserves at 30 years of production. That is, given that in 1990, we extracted 516 million tons of oil, proven reserves were equal to about 15 billion tons. Since then extracted about 4 billion, and almost nothing new, as far as I know, was not found. That is, we now have oil should be 11 billion tons. But if we take into account what about the middle of 1980 the rules have not been respected, something about the irreducible margin of 30% can be forgotten. And then it turns out that the oil we have less than 11 billion tons. How many exactly? If you add
published on the websites of our largest oil companies in all their stores, you get about 8 billion tons. I spoke with many experts, they also provide a number of 7 - 8 billion tons. Well, let the last time something still open. Hence, the stocks we have a little more - 8 - 9 billion tons. Twenty years production ...
- Twenty years from now? I'll still want to live, but can not will fight for life! Sprightly old man, who will eat tribesmen, until dry ... But pour everything starts a little earlier in the five years before the final whistle.
- We are already on a decline. Peak oil in the world has long passed. In different countries it happened at different times of the second half of the twentieth century. We have already're rolling downhill.
- Stop stop stop stop! ..

«ALL a cold, frostbite, begging crusts in the yard ..."

- Stop! .. If peak oil has passed, and life is not ending, it tells me one thing: the replacement of oil has been found! .. You know, I saw the schedule change Earth's energy civilization. First comes the increase in production, then - the peak, and then - the fall. Drop suggests that the replacement was found the previous energy. The curves are superimposed each other with overlapping. To replace the falling consumption of firewood goes off coal mining. Then, in turn, decreases the consumption of coal, because it is replaced came oil. Now falling oil prices, because they came to nuclear, hydroelectric, wind turbines. And because, despite an increase in the number of vehicles, gas mileage decreases at the 100-kilometer mileage.
- Do not forget that uranium for nuclear power plants - also exhaustible source, among other things. Windmills can be used not everywhere ... In addition, electricity - energy, not comfortable in small packages as opposed to liquid fuel. NPP in the car does not deliver. And the electric car - a utopia: all cars in the world are spending twice as much energy than generate all the power in the world! And when you consider that the loss of oil and we will lose the lion's share of power ... One-third of all electricity in the U.S. is on the TPS. In Japan, more than 50%, we have - 25%.
- A good result! Only by a quarter uzhmemsya! Straight from the soul stone.
- Put the stone back ... Case not only in the electricity and internal combustion engines, although only one end of the car already can paralyze civilization. That our world without a car aircraft, ship? .. Well, ships, all right, they can convert to coal. Coal on earth will last another hundred years. Power plant can theoretically be translated into the coal, but ...
Take a look around. Round - oil. Roads - it's asphalt and asphalt - heavy oil fractions. No oil, and 10 - 15 years without repair of the road coming into the state complete "neproezzhesti.
Remember Mendeleev said that stoke oil is like to drown in notes? Because oil is not only fuel but also raw materials. Twentieth Century - Age of plastic.
Plastics - is above all else yet, and clothing. Why synthetics found in virtually all the clothes? Seen on the tabs says: "40% - cotton», and the rest - Polymers ... Because the people on earth were so many that no plastic (read: oil) using agricultural raw materials only wear them impossible.
Speaking of agricultural raw ... For a single food calorie modern agriculture spending to 10 calories. This is a calorie of oil. Diesel fuel oil for tractors. Incidentally, oil also will not be. There I said that the ships can be transformed to coal ... I am afraid, will not work. If the car needs three or four different varieties of the lubricant, the ship of different oils have several dozen. Sailing will start to swim.
Mankind has long and firmly seated on the oil needle. Even when there was no car, and the whole structure of civilization has not yet become the "oil" (ie not passed the process of urbanization), even then the need for oil has been sharper! Remember the "White Guards" Bulgakov? Which required the peasants from the town?
- bread and circuses?
- demanded that the townspeople are not selected peasant bread and brought to the city "Gus" - kerosene. Does not splinter when we sit still! .. Even in Afghanistan, which from the fourteenth century had not yet got out, ran to our farmers soldier-shuravi with banks - diesel fuel traded. Because nothing is more convenient liquid fuel there.
- Lamp Ilyich.
- Well Light well ... Here is heated by electricity unprofitable. Conversion efficiency of electricity about 40%. That is stove in the kitchen gives us only 40% of the heat spent on the production of electricity, and the remaining 60% is lost on the way into town. Therefore, the boilers stoked oil. No liquid fuel our cities just vymerznut.
- What can we do something, God?
... Lord silent. Only silently leafing through the pages of his books ...

ersatz COWS

- Yes! Parshev! Hildren your mother .. I'm not going to sit here and wait for me will make a front legs. Should act! .. That we stay there? .. Slightly enriched uranium for lighting homes ... Coal. A lot! Germans ... Ersatz petrol ...
- Yes, I thought about it. You know, the veterans say that the front could be seen from afar, a tank burning - ours or German. Our solid smoked black solar smoke. A "German" - a light smoke from the synthetic gasoline. Indeed there is such a technology. But until that ersatz gasoline is more expensive than usual. Waiting, when because of shortage of oil prices level off? And is not it too late be? After all, oil is needed not only as fuel but also as raw material. Already, the government should introduce a fuel tax to the price of oil, and Artificial petrol called.
- That way you let me skew the whole economy! Today the lion's share of oil, as I understand it, is to burn in cars and power station. And if the rise the price of fuel oil, the rise and food prices, heating and everything else. And our citizens, and so pay nothing. Let's wait ten years until the economy do not get stronger, and then you ...
- Yes, once godit. Now the question is: can the human race to change the very type of their civilization, whether it can develop without using non-renewable sources, and using only renewable energy?
- Answer: no. Renewables - are agricultural products. A production of agricultural products in sufficient quantities without oil, as it turned out, impossible.
- Probably the people in the new world should be much less than now. Then they have enough renewable resources - biomass, hydro and wind power. Of course, this does not remove all the problems, because it is not clear where to take, say, some rare metals such as niobium or tantalum. They are a certainly non-renewable ... In the end, the question facing humanity is much broader - meaning of life. We must answer themselves, is Is consumption of the purpose of life? Perhaps the purpose of life - knowledge?
- How do you take the money on cognition? This is expensive in an era of physics particles. Money for knowledge can only give a rich economy that is spinning rapidly, produces surplus value, in which people are actively buying and paying taxes, and from these taxes the state finances science. But it is the consumer economy! Look at countries with strong science - it is rich country, I mean countries with economies in consumption. Active consumption, of course, leads to crises, including the crisis of exhaustion of resources, but the crises spur thinking, finding out, that is science, then you have a favorite cognition.
- but the same Synchrophasotron can serve many consume Americans consume enough Indians. A scientific results will be identical.
- First: the Indians are catching up. Synchrophasotron first invented yet rich, they had extra money on a pure scientific curiosity. Even the Soviet Union, which the whole is spent on science and defense, spit on poor people in many areas science and technology lagged far behind. Because he was not a consumer society! ..
And second: Indian-headed, sooner or later leave for America, because that's where the level of living is higher, ie consumption. In other words, consumption is in itself contributes to the growth of science in an area where there is the most consumption. Consume - and you will be healthy and wealthy. And Hindus are the poor. I do not want ...
- I would not want to ... Now the question is: Will it be possible to save human civilization? The countdown went. On this question we must answer in the next 50 years.
- Seeking, seeking ... I know that in thermonuke you do not believe. And in genetics? That's genetics will help us from agricultural products to all sorts gave a record harvest and less dependent on fossil fuel. Or not depended. Threw the grain, it itself has grown and came to the warehouse on a small insect legs. Genetics us make this a green cow, which gives three times more meat, thus will not eat, because in the skin it will be a process of photosynthesis, and will immediately doitsya beer. Waste-free cow.
- a nice way.
- Plus, genetic improvement of man! The lion's share of oil consumed in the boilers. Make us frost man and he will not need heating. Make that eating less, learn better and not tolstel, and that is simply indecent to some look ahead of the public starvation.
- lucky you. You can say such things. Just imagine if Parshev such publicly expressed about the genetic improvement of the human species. I would have eaten with giblets. How I envy you!
- Yes I am my own envy.
Alexander Nikonov

PS:

This year, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov signed a decree according to which information about the balance Oil stocks in the country now is a state secret. In addition to oil are classified as information on stocks of gas, nickel, cobalt, tantalum, niobium, beryllium, lithium, rare metals, yttrium, and especially pure quartz raw material ...