Are Bumps On My Scalp Warts?

Oil Kaleidoscope (18)

President of Shell - world oil production can not meet demand

Oil prices reached 116 dollars per barrel and the president's biggest oil company has warned that oil demand will meet the impossible.
What is it? Lack of investment? Geologists do not work? Speculation?
Until recently argued that the rise in oil prices caused by speculation.
But finally opened to the public eye - in a world too little oil and too many people.
Firstly, we are approaching the point X, when oil can not be bought for money, for it would have to fight.
Secondly, we are very close to point Y, where countries oil producers will switch targets - Rather than the motivation to increase production, there will be motivation to keep oil reserves for their country, for future generations of its people.

Mexico stops oil and gas exploration

Echoing the news above, Mexico has announced a reduction of the drilling program for oil and gas in 2011 to 42%!. First in "Petroleum kaleidoscope" reported that the country plans to reduce oil exports to meet domestic demand.

Russian Government falsifying data on oil production?

These two agencies involved in monitoring of oil in the world, more and more widely.
2010-2011 Добыча нефти в России в миллионах бочек в день.
Окт Нов Дек Янв
IEA 10.58 10.55 10.49 10.54 EIA
9.92 10.26 N / A N / A
first agency collects data from public sources. The second agency has access to the CIA and its information is more reliable.
mean Does the information above is that Russia has already begun and is in full swing collapse of oil? Indeed, the difference November data on an annualized basis is 25 million tons of oil - more than ever before will give Vankor.
Probably yes. With pages website Rosneft can see that the company literally rapes the only new (open in 1986m), a relatively large deposits (about 400 million tons) oil field in Russia, increasing its production to the detriment of the overall Total extract the oil. The fact that at Vankor trying to increase production at any cost, says that in other places, oil plummeted and even increasing production at Vankor this fall is impossible to disguise.

scenarios falling global oil

soft landing


Schedule IEA, let's take a closer look close.
On the chart above, the color blue - oil fields have not yet found (!!!!!) and those who not yet begun to develop.
At first glance, not so scary.

1. not found the field and those who have not yet begun to develop shows together. Bad ...
2. deposits which have not started to develop at an oil price of $ 150 per barrel most likely will never be put into operation, firstly because of the low EROI, and secondly the world enters a period where because of turmoil caused by the energy deficit will be impossible to make long term investments and oil production is just long-term investments with high risks.
3. Dark blue color - production at existing fields, like it looks good, but if you remove the blue, and it will be so, then the production from existing fields will be at the beginning of increased short-term, and then there will be a sharp collapse.

So the script "smooth landing" unfortunately is not viable and should be ready for "hard landing" or "crash."