In 1950 an American scientist King Hubbert created theory "peak oil" and became an outcast in scientific circles. In 1977, the U.S., the former for over 100 years the largest producer and exporter of crude oil reached a peak of production, and since production is continuously declining.
In November 2010 the International Energy Agency admitted that the world has reached peak oil production in the 2006m and the world will never produce more oil, than 2006m.
It would seem, must be economically refers to stocks of Russian oil, but casual owners are committed to deflate the entire Russian oil at the earliest time to transfer the money abroad, and to leave the crumbling country.
For this purpose, recent articles appear reassuring Russians that the world's oil is OK, and the Russians have enough oil for decades if not centuries ...
One such article, "To hen run out of oil" we and analyze. and understand that it is composed of lies (as well as all statements of the current Russian rulers).
lie you want to pass off as truth should disguise - the author instead of references to scientific work and publication in the beginning of the article mentions a certain event takes place in a cafe (the word has no scientific to the event in no way affiliated), and certain alleged scientists who took part in it.
first lie - If the answer to the question of when the oil is finished, it is necessary to divide oil that you get easy and that is difficult. Ease of production, largely related to the content of light fractions. Ie with good approximation we can assume that the easy oil has been extracted easily, and heavy heavy. most expensive oil is located off the coast of Brazil, she on the composition of light, but its cost of production of about $ 100 a barrel, because the water depth there is about three kilometers, and depth of the hole passing through the molten moving salt about 5 miles.
Another lie - According to the data, which resulted in SN Hajj in the world's proven reserves the order of 160-180 billion tons of light oil. Cost of production does not exceed 20 dollars per barrel (Russia). lists the maximum number of stocks of obsolete Report BP - they make fun of him now. Where in the world so much cheap oil, which is easy to obtain, then why expensive oil is extracted off the coast of Brazil, Gulf of Mexico so in the end, even Saudi Arabia, instead of drilling in his golden triangle (where only one of the fields they 210 to 35 kilometers - no matter where tkni everywhere oil) is looking for oil in the Red Sea at a depth of 2 km??
Why Medvedev at a meeting of the Security Council on Dec. 13, 2010 said that Russia's reserves have nothing, and in the next 10 years, new fields in Russia will not be put into operation??
Why rush to pay homage to BP, look for oil in the Arctic, which will be gold, even in comparison with the Brazilian??
lie number three (though in the above article is a lie and I select only the most grandiose) - reserves of heavy viscous crude oils are 810-820 billion tons. Cost of extraction of about $ 50 per barrel. Another 700 billion tonnes oil is obtained if the coal is "counted in the oil and 300 billion of oil is obtained if the" count "gas.
There are so many lies that you do not know where to start .... Phrase production cost does not carry any meaning. For oil is one indicator - EROI (ratio of energy output and input). So Here in the 60s for every unit of energy embedded in the production received 100 units of oil energy. In the 2000m, only 20, that is EROI fell by 2 each year, and now he is close to 1 for new deposits and what would the price of the call Hadjiev and whatever the figure is not quoted stocks - is a mirage and the oil that had not extract, but at this mirage is stolen, what little that Russia still remains.
Recalculations coal to oil and gas oil again mirage - the transition from one energy to another takes a minimum of 50 years.
AND Another section is densely packed with lies - Since cheap oil is over, it becomes economically feasible to develop biotechnology. Bright example of such a development is Brazil. There, the share of biofuels of 80%. These opportunities need to add production of synthetic crude oil to refineries South Africa it's tens of millions of tons. In general, the rumors about the "death»
oil are greatly exaggerated.
First of ethanol (alcohol) - that's a worthy study :
- to produce alcohol from corn consumes 29% more energy oil than is contained in the produced alcohol.
- for the production of alcohol herb consumed 50% more energy oil than is contained in the produced alcohol.
- for the production of alcohol from cellulose spent 57% more energy oil than is contained in the produced alcohol.
- for the production of biodiesel from soy is consumed 27% more energy oil than is contained in the produced Biodiesel.
- for the production of biodiesel from sunflower seed is consumed by 117% more energy oil than is contained in the produced biodiesel.
Second - Give posmotrim production stops Brazilii
Graph nizhe alcohol production in Brazilii, see How JSB nikogda and roslo gigantskimi tempami, and last year even began to fall.
Schedule 1, Alcohol production in Brazil, 2000-2009, in thousands of barrels per day (1 barrel = 159 liters)
Schedule 2, total consumption Energy Brazil (2008)
red in the chart above = oil + alcohol.
Schedule 3, producers of liquid hydrocarbons in South America (2010)
in the chart above we see crude oil (blue) and alcohol (yellow) - in thousands of barrels per day. As we can see - alcohol is in Brazil, less than 25 percent the volume of oil produced in Brazil.
necessary to take into account that the Brazilian importer of oil - imported oil is not shown in the chart above - Hence the proportion of alcohol is even lower.
On the chart below, the production and consumption of oil by Brazil are roughly equal, but Brazil imports a significant the amount of oil, as in the chart are given together, and oil and alcohol in barrels, rather than the energy that confuses the real situation.
Chart 4 Production Brazil and consumption of liquid hydrocarbons in thousands of barrels per day (2002-2012) forecast = forecast.
in alcohol has only half the energy contained in the oil - then divide the 25 percent (the amount of alcohol produced from the total volume of liquid hydrocarbons) into two and go for a figure - alcohol provides less than 10 percent consumed in Brazil, liquid hydrocarbons and less than 5 percent of energy consumed in Brazil.
But that's not all. After all, as we saw above for the production of alcohol consumed oil and if you take it into account the proportion of alcohol in Brazil 80 percent, according to the liars, but simply void.
But this is not all. Alcohol production depends on the weather. About this cataclysm in the Amazon does not make headlines - too scary. Production of alcohol can quickly go at no out of climate change.
Now on oil from coal in South Africa. The graph below shows the total oil consumption in South Africa and the production of oil from coal.
Figure 5, consumption and production of oil in South Africa 1998-2008, in thousands of barrels per day.
What we see on the chart? Production of oil from coal in South Africa holds on one level - 7 million tons per year. Expended on it about 70 million tons of coal [ a , 2 ]. Imports of crude oil increases and is more than 15 million tons per year. South Africa produces 250 million tons of coal, but will never produce enough oil from coal for their needs. Why? Because for the production of coal need oil. South Africa is a unique place - there is cheap labor - the miners - they largely replace oil expended to produce coal elsewhere. Neither of which tens of millions of tons of oil from coal, even on a global scale can not be considered.
Shale gas is a topic for a separate conversation - the same mirage as heavy oil.
Conclusion
outlined above bleak picture- "scientists" on the order of corrupt politicians make predictions based on which direction the country is selling the last Russian resources.
- Corrupt journalists write customized through Wikipedia with lies and "free" press them to the public.
- leadership of the country, even if he can stretch his birdbrain, not in a position to assess the real situation in the Russian oil industry, not to mention the world.
- "Scientists" fulfill the order and say what they want to hear it upstairs.
- Oil rapidly ends and replace it there.
- will cover oil, fails / etc and coal production, which depends on oil.
- Mankind has entered into such a crisis in which it has never happened before.
- And instead though as that to prepare for the collapse, the Russian steering timeservers continue to drive oil abroad.